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ESPN: Predicting Interceptions | Football…

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ESPN: Predicting Interceptions | Football...

I wrote a piece for ESPN+ today about using passes defensed to predict interceptions. The article features the projections for top contenders but I wanted to run the whole table here. The basic idea is that passes defensed are a better future predictor of interceptions than past interception totals. There’s randomness to interceptions, similar to fumble recoveries. These numbers predict future interceptions using both passes defensed and schedule strength.

Here are the correlation of certain stats from Weeks 1-9 and the interception projections to interceptions in Weeks 10-17:

  • Offense interceptions: .17
  • Offense PD: .26
  • Offense projection: .37
  • Defense interceptions: .08
  • Defense PD: .21
  • Defense projection: .38

And here’s a table with projected interceptions both offense and defense for all 32 teams in Weeks 11-17: